* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992019 10/17/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 37 42 44 42 42 41 42 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 37 42 44 42 42 41 42 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 31 31 30 29 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 8 11 10 13 14 11 15 15 16 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 0 -4 -1 2 0 -2 0 7 12 SHEAR DIR 84 67 61 58 62 75 110 124 146 143 115 105 93 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 143 142 141 142 143 142 141 141 141 143 145 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.4 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 53 54 55 55 54 50 47 44 36 34 33 35 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 7 6 4 2 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 1 10 27 28 19 -4 -4 -21 -5 -1 -1 -29 200 MB DIV -41 -26 -20 3 33 9 2 -28 -20 -55 -60 -33 -17 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2038 2109 2196 2267 2314 2346 2309 2229 2158 2152 2218 2330 2462 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 10.5 9.9 9.4 9.1 9.3 10.1 11.1 11.6 11.3 10.4 9.5 8.7 LONG(DEG W) 125.0 125.4 125.9 126.3 126.6 127.3 127.7 127.7 127.3 126.9 126.8 127.3 128.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 5 4 4 5 5 2 3 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 17 22 28 19 12 10 9 9 10 16 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 17. 19. 17. 17. 16. 17. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 125.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992019 INVEST 10/17/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.62 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.12 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.57 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.1% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 18.3% 12.9% 2.2% 3.0% 0.2% 0.1% 11.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 11.7% 9.7% 0.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 3.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992019 INVEST 10/17/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##