* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992019 07/27/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 45 53 61 64 68 68 69 67 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 45 53 61 64 68 68 69 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 36 40 46 50 56 61 64 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 8 9 8 4 4 6 5 3 7 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 5 1 -2 -2 -4 -5 -6 -5 -4 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 34 24 28 41 33 360 322 318 2 303 271 277 254 SST (C) 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 29.0 29.3 28.8 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 157 160 159 158 154 155 158 153 144 142 141 135 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 70 68 66 63 61 56 52 48 52 51 53 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 9 9 11 11 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -3 -8 0 1 -4 10 19 9 9 6 1 -8 200 MB DIV 47 52 41 34 33 52 46 69 41 21 15 0 0 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -5 -4 -5 -3 -3 -3 -5 -2 -8 -1 5 LAND (KM) 1732 1805 1898 1982 2063 2245 2405 2537 2318 2077 1847 1622 1403 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 11.2 11.7 12.4 13.1 13.8 14.4 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 120.0 121.2 122.6 123.9 125.1 127.6 130.0 132.2 134.4 136.5 138.5 140.5 142.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 42 55 52 39 27 19 29 24 15 13 24 17 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 3. 6. 7. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 20. 28. 36. 39. 43. 43. 44. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 120.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992019 INVEST 07/27/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.61 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.39 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.5% 24.6% 0.0% 0.0% 23.0% 23.8% 0.0% Logistic: 13.4% 55.6% 29.1% 20.9% 4.0% 17.9% 7.2% 24.3% Bayesian: 1.6% 8.1% 1.8% 0.7% 0.0% 3.6% 2.2% 0.1% Consensus: 5.0% 30.4% 18.5% 7.2% 1.4% 14.8% 11.0% 8.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992019 INVEST 07/27/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##