* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYFOU EP992018 10/20/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 39 44 53 63 72 81 79 81 80 72 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 39 44 53 63 72 81 79 81 80 72 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 41 48 56 64 68 69 67 61 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 8 8 7 4 2 2 7 4 6 10 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -9 -9 -7 -5 -5 -1 1 0 6 12 10 7 SHEAR DIR 60 78 98 96 125 175 174 111 164 192 215 230 211 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 156 154 152 145 145 147 143 140 139 138 142 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 76 74 70 67 64 59 53 47 49 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 14 16 19 21 25 23 24 24 20 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -15 -17 -8 -9 -22 -5 16 18 26 29 39 44 200 MB DIV 51 38 40 56 83 86 74 41 46 47 29 29 61 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 3 1 2 10 9 LAND (KM) 409 418 429 426 428 413 406 422 449 462 456 346 217 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 4 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 27 28 27 25 23 20 18 15 13 13 11 10 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 396 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 16.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 9. 15. 22. 26. 28. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 19. 17. 19. 18. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 14. 23. 33. 42. 51. 49. 51. 50. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 104.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992018 TWENTYFOU 10/20/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.55 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.23 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.46 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.25 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 -3.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.74 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 43% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 23.4% 16.0% 14.2% 0.0% 19.1% 22.7% 42.7% Logistic: 2.0% 19.1% 8.0% 4.1% 5.7% 27.4% 83.2% 28.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 8.7% 2.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 1.3% Consensus: 3.2% 17.1% 8.8% 6.2% 2.1% 15.7% 35.5% 24.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 20.0% 12.0% 6.0% 2.0% 12.0% 17.0% 46.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992018 TWENTYFOU 10/20/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX