* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992018 10/19/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 38 47 57 69 78 89 97 101 96 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 38 47 57 69 78 89 97 101 96 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 35 41 49 59 71 82 84 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 6 11 7 7 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -6 -6 -2 -3 -1 -2 -3 -1 4 9 SHEAR DIR 53 54 62 85 110 113 104 53 16 15 281 179 191 SST (C) 29.1 29.5 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.7 28.0 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 160 163 162 161 159 160 160 162 160 144 142 143 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.1 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 76 75 75 70 73 74 74 72 64 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 11 13 15 18 24 30 32 30 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -4 -16 -22 -19 -13 -18 -23 13 23 31 62 63 200 MB DIV 38 44 41 42 54 76 62 36 73 81 90 66 90 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 1 1 4 LAND (KM) 415 444 459 472 481 517 566 618 598 500 376 432 478 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 14.9 14.7 14.2 14.2 15.1 16.8 18.2 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 103.0 104.1 104.9 105.5 106.0 106.7 107.2 107.3 107.0 106.7 107.3 109.1 111.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 7 6 5 2 3 2 3 7 10 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 40 29 29 30 27 25 26 31 32 24 19 16 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 326 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 8. 16. 25. 31. 35. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 14. 22. 31. 33. 29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 22. 32. 44. 53. 64. 72. 76. 71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 103.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992018 INVEST 10/19/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.61 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.28 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.86 -4.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.4% 21.9% 0.0% 0.0% 20.1% 23.1% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 43.4% 24.4% 14.2% 14.1% 43.6% 66.6% 53.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 7.8% 1.5% 0.2% 0.3% 2.5% 6.4% 2.7% Consensus: 2.0% 25.2% 15.9% 4.8% 4.8% 22.0% 32.1% 18.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992018 INVEST 10/19/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX