* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992018 10/19/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 30 36 44 51 56 59 62 63 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 30 36 44 51 56 59 62 44 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 29 32 35 39 43 48 38 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 11 10 16 17 19 14 14 9 11 4 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -6 -4 -5 -3 -1 -2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 67 77 61 66 80 87 66 40 39 346 259 253 219 SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.1 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 160 159 158 154 154 155 157 157 157 155 161 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.8 -53.9 -53.3 -52.8 -53.4 -52.5 -53.4 -52.5 -53.4 -52.5 -53.3 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 9 6 9 700-500 MB RH 80 78 75 74 75 74 77 78 81 81 75 70 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 39 33 21 15 5 7 13 22 22 25 34 45 200 MB DIV 63 62 57 64 73 68 113 85 132 71 67 59 73 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -5 0 4 3 LAND (KM) 265 283 304 329 350 376 392 363 285 183 25 -46 -114 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.6 13.8 14.7 16.1 17.8 19.1 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 97.5 98.5 99.4 100.2 100.9 101.5 101.4 101.2 101.5 102.2 102.9 103.6 104.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 5 1 1 3 6 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 16 24 36 47 54 55 52 39 33 20 35 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 9. 16. 25. 30. 34. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 10. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 11. 19. 26. 31. 34. 37. 38. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 97.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992018 INVEST 10/19/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.27 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.24 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.51 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 -3.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.86 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.4% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 15.1% 18.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 3.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 1.6% 10.5% 18.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% Consensus: 0.1% 7.3% 5.8% 0.1% 0.1% 5.6% 9.6% 6.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 7.0% 55.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992018 INVEST 10/19/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX