* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992018 10/18/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 32 35 39 47 55 68 81 92 99 103 101 V (KT) LAND 25 27 32 35 39 47 55 68 81 92 99 103 101 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 42 54 67 76 80 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 18 11 9 12 11 6 9 4 4 3 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -1 0 1 -3 -4 -5 -4 1 2 6 SHEAR DIR 67 70 56 54 42 19 47 37 157 191 348 94 84 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.9 29.6 29.9 29.3 29.3 29.8 28.7 28.0 28.4 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 148 153 160 164 157 157 163 150 142 146 143 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -52.5 -53.3 -52.5 -52.8 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 5 5 7 6 9 7 8 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 82 80 81 80 76 78 80 82 79 73 68 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 13 13 13 15 15 19 23 27 30 32 32 850 MB ENV VOR 73 62 53 34 30 15 11 6 -13 -6 -2 15 36 200 MB DIV 109 81 109 100 86 70 78 82 54 82 30 39 63 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -1 -5 -1 0 1 -1 1 LAND (KM) 288 266 256 266 250 232 227 244 260 310 360 380 332 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.7 14.4 15.1 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.1 17.8 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 94.9 95.5 96.2 97.0 97.9 99.6 101.1 102.8 104.6 106.2 107.4 108.2 108.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 8 9 7 6 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 9 15 25 34 31 24 21 19 18 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 9. 16. 25. 30. 34. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 11. 18. 26. 30. 31. 30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 10. 14. 22. 30. 43. 56. 67. 74. 78. 76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 94.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992018 INVEST 10/18/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.28 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.69 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.86 -3.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.2% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.1% 20.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 8.2% 2.3% 1.4% 0.4% 8.1% 48.8% 53.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 3.5% Consensus: 0.1% 9.7% 6.6% 0.5% 0.1% 8.1% 23.1% 18.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 15.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992018 INVEST 10/18/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX