* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992018 10/18/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 41 48 53 59 65 64 59 57 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 41 48 53 59 65 64 59 57 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 31 34 38 43 47 46 45 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 21 10 8 10 7 7 11 13 10 13 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 4 2 0 -1 -3 -3 0 2 8 6 SHEAR DIR 66 72 86 80 59 72 88 132 174 206 220 349 95 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.3 29.1 29.8 30.3 29.6 28.9 29.1 28.5 27.9 27.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 146 154 162 168 161 154 155 148 142 140 138 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 6 6 5 8 7 10 6 7 5 6 700-500 MB RH 83 83 83 81 82 81 83 79 74 65 59 51 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 11 13 16 17 14 14 13 12 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 90 85 86 81 62 46 44 41 34 32 47 41 39 200 MB DIV 106 117 92 103 109 51 66 59 93 33 21 -23 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 4 1 -2 -4 -7 -4 0 2 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 212 182 157 140 131 113 119 118 172 225 290 372 322 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 10 11 10 9 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 13 15 20 21 27 19 23 20 18 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 8. 16. 25. 30. 34. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 7. 8. 5. 5. 6. 4. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 16. 23. 28. 34. 40. 39. 34. 32. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 95.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992018 INVEST 10/18/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.19 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.73 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 14.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 12.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 7.0% 61.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992018 INVEST 10/18/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING