* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992018 10/17/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 44 50 59 66 74 78 78 76 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 44 50 59 66 74 78 78 76 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 33 37 42 49 53 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 19 17 11 1 3 6 6 8 11 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 4 4 2 2 -1 0 -3 -5 2 SHEAR DIR 35 29 33 40 23 17 6 69 153 158 189 215 334 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.4 28.5 30.0 30.3 30.1 29.2 29.9 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 148 145 148 150 165 169 166 157 163 163 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.7 -54.0 -52.8 -53.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 5 4 6 5 8 5 9 7 9 7 700-500 MB RH 84 83 83 83 81 81 81 81 82 81 83 77 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 14 15 15 14 17 18 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 74 78 82 78 63 57 27 21 31 30 26 14 2 200 MB DIV 83 82 109 120 105 117 73 77 63 87 86 73 2 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 1 1 -4 0 -2 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 163 178 172 177 173 184 198 73 32 30 56 113 176 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.7 13.3 14.2 15.2 16.2 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 90.5 91.1 91.4 91.8 92.2 93.4 95.1 97.2 99.2 101.2 103.3 105.0 106.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 4 4 4 5 8 11 11 11 10 10 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 8 8 10 16 20 17 21 16 24 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 30. 34. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 5. 5. 6. 7. 10. 12. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 19. 25. 34. 41. 49. 53. 53. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 90.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992018 INVEST 10/17/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.18 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.06 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.70 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.87 -3.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.9% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% 20.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 3.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 5.2% 29.8% 27.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% Consensus: 0.1% 7.0% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% 7.0% 16.8% 9.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992018 INVEST 10/17/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX