* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992018 08/25/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 49 56 63 69 73 74 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 49 56 63 69 73 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 29 30 32 35 38 41 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 8 9 10 7 9 7 12 8 8 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 1 1 1 -3 -3 0 0 1 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 31 30 7 358 4 21 359 6 355 17 15 353 3 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.3 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 148 147 144 142 142 143 142 137 138 137 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 73 75 75 74 72 73 70 71 69 71 70 73 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -37 -38 -43 -42 -16 -14 -8 -1 15 20 15 11 200 MB DIV 43 38 31 19 11 26 6 7 -17 12 51 57 79 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 0 1 4 1 0 -1 -3 -4 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 1651 1691 1745 1795 1865 2004 2161 2346 2312 2072 1863 1697 1564 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.3 13.6 13.5 13.3 13.0 12.6 12.3 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.6 122.6 123.6 124.7 127.0 129.2 131.6 134.1 136.6 138.9 140.8 142.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 12 10 8 5 HEAT CONTENT 18 14 15 15 15 24 13 16 10 3 6 16 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 28. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 16. 24. 31. 38. 44. 48. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.1 120.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992018 INVEST 08/25/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.51 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.9% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 14.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 5.7% 1.9% 0.9% 0.2% 1.8% 2.0% 11.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 0.3% 7.9% 3.8% 0.3% 0.1% 4.8% 5.6% 3.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992018 INVEST 08/25/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX