* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992018 07/16/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 30 30 27 24 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 30 30 27 24 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 28 26 23 21 19 17 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 16 18 20 27 25 8 16 21 27 35 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -4 -3 -3 0 3 0 -2 2 4 6 SHEAR DIR 270 265 260 266 282 313 307 276 248 271 269 266 252 SST (C) 27.1 26.5 26.7 26.8 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 26.7 27.2 27.0 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 130 132 133 139 139 140 141 132 136 134 140 142 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 70 71 71 70 68 65 63 58 57 56 59 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 11 12 11 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 22 28 30 33 33 24 18 5 2 -7 -1 -13 -13 200 MB DIV 29 18 26 20 28 46 3 -31 -9 9 31 36 24 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 0 1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1834 1690 1548 1408 1272 1016 803 641 594 666 811 988 1117 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 139.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 8 9 14 6 7 8 10 13 28 19 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. 0. -3. -6. -8. -12. -16. -19. -21. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 139.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992018 INVEST 07/16/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 3.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.21 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.80 -2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 8.8% 8.7% 5.2% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% Logistic: 0.6% 2.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 1.5% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 4.1% 3.1% 1.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.5% 3.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992018 INVEST 07/16/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX