* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992018 07/16/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 30 29 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 30 29 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 28 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 18 19 22 30 32 25 22 28 31 35 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -6 -6 -1 -1 0 5 2 0 -2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 271 278 268 260 250 267 290 299 230 240 239 239 234 SST (C) 27.5 27.1 26.4 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.5 26.6 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 129 127 127 129 133 133 133 129 129 133 134 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 70 71 69 66 62 57 54 49 48 45 47 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 11 20 25 25 26 17 14 8 14 9 18 17 15 200 MB DIV 50 38 29 42 44 25 32 3 -43 -3 21 37 38 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1942 1820 1674 1519 1364 1063 774 529 354 322 413 523 614 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.9 14.5 15.1 15.9 16.3 16.2 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 137.9 139.0 140.2 141.5 142.8 145.5 148.3 151.2 154.0 156.4 158.2 159.7 160.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 14 14 14 14 14 14 12 11 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 8 8 5 17 2 2 5 6 13 31 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -13. -18. -23. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -10. -15. -21. -28. -33. -35. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 137.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992018 INVEST 07/16/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.18 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.77 -1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 12.9% 7.3% 2.9% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 4.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 5.9% 2.7% 1.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992018 INVEST 07/16/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX