* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992018 07/16/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 33 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 33 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 32 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 16 19 24 28 41 23 27 31 34 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -6 -6 -3 3 1 -7 4 3 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 272 275 274 263 255 250 272 304 264 237 241 241 244 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.1 26.4 26.2 26.5 26.3 26.4 27.1 26.5 26.6 26.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 136 129 127 130 128 129 136 129 129 131 134 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 68 71 71 68 65 58 55 53 46 47 45 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 12 11 10 7 7 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 3 13 26 32 29 28 17 17 10 18 14 24 17 200 MB DIV 45 44 34 38 63 47 30 31 -36 -36 12 12 35 700-850 TADV -5 -3 0 0 0 0 1 -1 1 0 1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 2075 1967 1835 1685 1530 1215 903 622 404 313 380 491 595 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.9 13.4 14.1 14.7 15.8 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 136.7 137.7 138.8 140.0 141.3 144.0 146.9 149.9 152.8 155.3 157.5 159.1 160.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 13 14 14 15 14 14 13 12 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 10 8 7 17 2 1 4 4 9 22 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -6. -13. -18. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -17. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -1. -2. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -6. -12. -20. -27. -33. -35. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.7 136.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992018 INVEST 07/16/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.36 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.78 -3.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 13.7% 13.6% 8.9% 5.1% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 7.4% 2.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.7% 1.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 7.4% 5.2% 3.3% 2.0% 3.6% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992018 INVEST 07/16/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX