* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992018 07/15/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 32 29 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 32 29 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 33 31 28 25 21 19 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 10 11 15 20 22 26 25 18 25 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -6 -7 0 1 2 0 0 1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 281 280 273 268 262 242 279 297 311 221 233 244 241 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.1 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.1 26.7 26.6 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 141 136 130 129 128 133 134 136 135 131 129 133 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 66 68 69 67 61 58 55 50 47 44 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 13 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 16 13 23 33 39 42 29 18 8 12 14 15 15 200 MB DIV 63 56 56 50 51 50 25 12 -6 -46 -3 23 21 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -3 0 1 -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 2095 1951 1824 1692 1556 1280 1011 767 581 443 426 488 602 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.7 14.6 15.2 15.5 15.4 15.3 15.1 15.1 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 136.5 137.9 139.1 140.3 141.5 143.9 146.4 148.9 151.4 153.8 156.1 157.9 159.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 9 8 11 12 5 2 4 5 6 8 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -7. -9. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -14. -16. -18. -19. -19. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -5. -8. -13. -17. -21. -24. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.7 136.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992018 INVEST 07/15/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 3.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.50 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.77 -2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.26 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 16.5% 10.2% 9.6% 0.0% 11.1% 11.1% 6.1% Logistic: 0.8% 3.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.8% 3.8% 3.4% 0.1% 3.9% 3.9% 2.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992018 INVEST 07/15/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX