* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992018 07/15/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 29 29 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 29 29 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 12 13 14 16 25 27 28 31 17 25 21 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -4 -4 -5 -4 5 3 0 5 1 0 5 SHEAR DIR 256 270 265 262 257 241 238 285 304 260 242 255 246 SST (C) 28.1 27.7 27.0 27.1 26.5 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.8 26.5 26.6 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 136 137 131 126 127 128 134 130 130 134 135 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -54.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 70 69 70 67 66 57 50 48 46 43 47 48 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 14 13 13 12 10 10 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 3 1 4 26 25 17 20 18 42 25 32 17 16 200 MB DIV 85 48 59 56 47 46 67 39 -2 -27 -10 29 16 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -2 -1 0 -3 0 2 0 3 1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 2479 2384 2233 2064 1876 1471 1054 659 401 291 416 576 712 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.5 14.2 14.9 16.3 17.2 17.3 16.7 16.3 15.8 15.5 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 132.5 133.5 134.8 136.2 137.8 141.3 145.1 149.0 152.4 155.3 157.8 159.8 161.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 14 16 17 19 19 17 16 13 11 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 12 8 12 0 6 1 3 4 9 25 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -11. -15. -19. -20. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. -1. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. -3. -8. -12. -17. -19. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 132.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992018 INVEST 07/15/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.39 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.49 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.79 -3.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.3% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.0% 32.1% 12.9% 7.4% 8.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 17.5% 9.8% 2.5% 2.7% 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992018 INVEST 07/15/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX