* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992018 07/15/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 31 28 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 31 28 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 28 25 22 18 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 10 12 14 21 20 25 31 22 16 20 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -3 -3 -4 -6 2 2 -3 -2 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 197 250 259 262 264 255 258 297 311 310 236 237 243 SST (C) 27.8 27.2 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.0 26.7 26.0 26.4 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 137 139 137 135 125 132 124 128 134 130 129 130 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 68 67 67 66 61 56 54 52 50 51 51 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 12 13 15 14 13 12 11 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 27 23 17 21 38 37 37 29 23 7 8 5 11 200 MB DIV 118 70 49 51 51 19 47 15 -4 -9 -18 -3 23 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -5 -4 -3 0 -3 1 -3 -2 -2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 2409 2279 2139 1986 1833 1485 1168 910 706 580 472 447 463 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.6 15.1 15.2 15.2 14.9 14.9 14.9 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 133.3 134.5 135.8 137.2 138.6 141.8 144.8 147.5 149.9 152.1 154.1 156.0 157.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 15 14 13 11 10 9 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 11 14 12 5 20 2 2 6 5 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -6. -11. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 0. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. 1. -3. -8. -12. -14. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 133.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992018 INVEST 07/15/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.55 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.53 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.78 -2.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.31 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.8% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 12.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 11.8% 4.6% 2.2% 0.8% 1.5% 3.4% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 11.5% 6.1% 0.8% 0.3% 4.5% 5.3% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992018 INVEST 07/15/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX