* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992017 09/26/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 41 46 50 52 52 52 51 49 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 30 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 18 19 18 17 20 16 11 14 14 19 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 -1 -2 -5 -8 -4 -6 -5 -6 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 85 73 57 64 74 73 95 106 108 134 175 169 200 SST (C) 31.0 30.9 30.8 30.7 30.5 30.1 30.2 30.1 29.8 29.9 30.2 29.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 170 170 169 165 166 165 163 164 167 157 146 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 7 9 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 74 76 77 77 76 79 75 75 74 72 68 65 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 80 84 77 71 69 68 91 65 52 25 30 22 200 MB DIV 87 68 85 79 83 70 34 41 45 49 51 45 14 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -1 0 0 0 1 0 -2 1 1 5 LAND (KM) 165 141 89 16 -57 -164 -152 -92 -33 -30 24 145 246 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.2 15.8 16.4 17.3 17.6 17.7 18.1 18.8 19.6 20.4 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 94.5 94.9 95.2 95.5 95.8 96.8 98.2 99.8 101.6 103.5 105.4 107.1 108.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 26 28 14 50 53 53 51 50 51 25 29 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 4. 13. 22. 30. 34. 36. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 16. 21. 25. 27. 27. 27. 26. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 94.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992017 INVEST 09/26/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.95 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.18 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.60 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 47.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992017 INVEST 09/26/17 18 UTC ## ##