* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992017 07/21/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 44 53 58 60 61 64 67 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 44 53 58 60 61 64 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 23 24 25 27 30 34 38 40 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 11 10 13 13 11 5 4 14 13 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 2 0 0 0 -1 -4 0 -2 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 356 353 360 349 347 353 3 16 172 165 167 142 111 SST (C) 28.4 27.9 27.4 27.2 27.5 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.8 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 144 139 136 139 145 146 146 145 144 145 143 146 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 73 71 72 72 71 73 74 74 74 72 63 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 13 12 13 14 15 15 16 16 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -24 -16 -16 -15 -35 -50 -61 -49 -22 -29 -24 -20 200 MB DIV 0 12 23 25 43 48 31 21 -9 19 -10 -6 -3 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 1 2 1 4 3 LAND (KM) 815 866 940 970 1036 1191 1295 1301 1221 1151 1244 1467 1744 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.6 14.8 14.9 14.7 14.0 13.2 12.9 13.5 14.5 15.0 14.3 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 110.2 111.4 112.6 113.7 114.7 116.3 116.8 116.4 116.0 116.4 118.4 120.8 122.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 6 3 3 5 7 12 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 31 22 14 10 15 18 14 13 16 21 20 21 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 19. 28. 33. 35. 36. 39. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 110.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992017 INVEST 07/21/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.17 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.28 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 2.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.16 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 88.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.6% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 10.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 8.3% 3.0% 2.6% 1.5% 2.6% 4.7% 23.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% Consensus: 0.7% 7.4% 3.9% 0.9% 0.5% 4.1% 5.4% 7.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992017 INVEST 07/21/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##