* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992017 07/21/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 37 42 47 54 55 57 59 60 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 37 42 47 54 55 57 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 32 32 33 34 36 38 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 12 10 10 12 13 5 2 11 13 21 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 2 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 24 9 9 359 344 336 347 8 145 164 162 151 147 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.6 27.3 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 146 141 137 141 144 145 144 144 145 144 145 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 75 72 70 71 71 71 74 73 75 73 67 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 14 13 14 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -28 -31 -23 -20 -37 -51 -67 -71 -49 -32 -28 -32 200 MB DIV 9 0 8 24 30 34 32 20 -5 -4 -36 21 -4 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -3 -2 -3 0 -1 0 2 2 1 5 4 LAND (KM) 806 824 877 956 982 1079 1194 1270 1279 1221 1222 1344 1596 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.7 14.7 14.3 13.8 13.5 14.0 14.5 14.6 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 110.1 111.2 112.4 113.5 115.5 116.8 117.3 117.0 116.8 117.5 119.3 121.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 8 5 2 2 3 7 10 14 HEAT CONTENT 43 34 31 17 11 19 21 17 15 19 22 19 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 12. 17. 24. 25. 27. 29. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 109.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992017 INVEST 07/21/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.25 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.16 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 103.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.77 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 9.0% 8.3% 6.5% 0.0% 10.0% 10.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 3.4% 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 1.5% 2.1% 5.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.0% 4.6% 3.2% 2.6% 0.2% 3.9% 4.3% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992017 INVEST 07/21/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##