* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992017 07/21/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 39 42 43 46 49 50 51 51 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 39 42 43 46 49 50 51 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 32 33 33 32 32 32 33 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 16 15 12 12 13 15 10 1 10 12 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 0 4 2 0 -1 -3 0 -5 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 30 24 18 28 17 360 338 346 344 308 202 193 169 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.1 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 146 144 139 138 139 140 142 143 144 145 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 76 77 74 73 73 72 74 72 75 73 71 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 10 10 11 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 0 2 -5 -16 -15 -26 -38 -55 -67 -83 -65 -49 -28 200 MB DIV 42 15 16 21 41 37 34 -4 11 18 0 -41 -18 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -7 -5 -3 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 888 922 944 969 1010 1038 1051 1077 1116 1181 1227 1301 1415 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.5 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.1 14.9 14.6 14.4 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.7 110.6 111.4 112.2 113.6 114.8 115.8 116.7 117.4 117.7 118.5 119.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 28 37 41 47 32 13 17 22 29 27 23 19 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.1 108.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992017 INVEST 07/21/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.24 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.35 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 1.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.12 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 83.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 11.1% 8.9% 6.7% 0.0% 10.9% 11.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 2.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 1.3% 3.2% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% Consensus: 0.9% 4.9% 3.2% 2.4% 0.1% 4.1% 5.1% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992017 INVEST 07/21/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##