* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992017 07/20/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 46 47 48 50 54 56 56 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 46 47 48 50 54 56 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 37 39 40 39 38 38 38 41 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 11 14 17 15 16 17 16 7 2 7 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 6 0 2 0 -2 -2 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 31 29 20 12 19 16 354 358 8 16 34 168 174 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 150 148 142 138 139 140 141 145 147 149 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 77 76 77 76 74 74 71 72 71 72 71 69 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 9 9 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -6 13 23 19 17 -10 -31 -40 -57 -64 -60 -50 200 MB DIV 50 54 53 15 40 48 37 30 27 23 -4 -25 -53 700-850 TADV 2 0 -4 -7 -8 -7 -4 -5 -5 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 769 796 838 871 923 1026 1041 1075 1121 1169 1257 1363 1491 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.4 14.0 14.5 14.8 14.9 14.8 14.1 13.2 12.2 LONG(DEG W) 106.0 107.4 108.7 109.9 111.0 112.8 114.4 115.6 116.5 117.1 117.5 117.9 118.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 11 9 7 5 3 3 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 27 36 41 45 17 15 20 26 27 19 14 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 23. 25. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -3. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 16. 17. 18. 20. 24. 26. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.8 106.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992017 INVEST 07/20/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.35 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.34 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.23 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.22 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 65.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 11.6% 10.6% 9.0% 0.0% 12.9% 12.0% 9.8% Logistic: 1.4% 6.9% 2.5% 1.6% 0.6% 3.3% 4.9% 5.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.7% 1.8% Consensus: 2.3% 7.7% 4.6% 3.6% 0.2% 5.6% 5.9% 5.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992017 INVEST 07/20/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##