* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 10/19/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 24 25 25 24 23 21 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 24 25 25 24 23 21 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 23 22 21 20 19 18 18 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 4 2 3 6 7 7 9 12 18 26 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -3 -1 -1 0 1 -3 -5 -6 -3 1 3 SHEAR DIR 268 276 265 245 190 209 241 260 264 236 238 234 254 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 138 138 137 135 136 138 137 139 140 140 139 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 54 56 58 58 55 52 52 55 55 54 52 51 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 36 50 54 52 54 54 58 57 59 42 26 10 200 MB DIV 16 28 33 25 14 18 21 24 23 47 18 5 -12 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1897 1816 1749 1696 1653 1610 1631 1679 1736 1815 1897 1977 2066 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.3 12.1 12.1 12.4 12.9 13.8 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 138.7 139.6 140.3 140.8 141.2 141.6 141.5 141.1 140.5 139.5 138.4 137.2 136.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 4 4 0 1 3 4 5 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 11 13 15 15 16 15 12 9 15 23 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -14. -17. -18. -20. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 138.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 10/19/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.71 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.15 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.28 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.23 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 112.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.74 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.89 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.96 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.4% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 3.5% 4.9% 0.5% 0.2% 2.9% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.3% 5.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 10/19/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##