* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 10/19/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 29 29 28 27 24 21 18 18 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 29 29 28 27 24 21 18 18 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 23 22 22 22 21 20 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 10 8 6 3 4 7 8 8 10 15 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 0 1 3 0 -4 -6 -8 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 272 276 277 269 259 167 222 252 265 251 242 236 244 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 139 137 138 137 136 136 138 137 138 138 137 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 55 54 55 56 56 53 53 56 56 53 52 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 38 35 38 47 49 48 55 56 60 51 48 31 20 200 MB DIV 14 5 27 28 25 9 20 28 33 38 51 9 0 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1955 1853 1767 1710 1653 1582 1573 1603 1646 1706 1771 1809 1853 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.3 12.2 12.3 12.5 13.1 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 138.0 139.1 140.0 140.6 141.2 141.9 142.0 141.8 141.4 140.7 139.9 139.2 138.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 7 6 5 2 1 1 3 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 10 11 15 15 16 17 16 12 9 11 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 779 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -4. -7. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 138.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 10/19/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.71 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.15 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.63 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.21 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 117.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.74 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.33 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.96 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 7.3% 4.4% 1.7% 0.8% 4.1% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 9.6% 6.1% 0.6% 0.3% 1.4% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 10/19/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##