* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 10/19/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 22 22 21 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 22 22 21 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 20 19 18 17 17 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 12 11 8 6 14 16 21 33 41 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 -4 -5 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 233 244 257 258 263 276 219 221 227 229 233 237 239 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 141 140 140 137 136 134 134 136 136 136 130 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 56 56 55 54 56 55 54 53 54 53 49 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 36 39 37 32 30 43 44 56 64 76 75 68 46 200 MB DIV 42 23 18 2 9 25 7 33 23 42 37 21 3 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -5 -9 -8 -2 LAND (KM) 2166 2064 1980 1911 1843 1721 1624 1590 1595 1622 1708 1860 2031 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 12.7 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.4 15.3 16.4 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 135.7 136.8 137.7 138.4 139.1 140.2 141.0 141.2 141.0 140.5 139.3 137.5 135.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 7 6 5 3 1 3 6 9 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 13 18 19 17 15 13 11 11 12 15 19 9 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 762 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -5. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -13. -19. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 135.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 10/19/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.73 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.22 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.37 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 127.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.72 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.69 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.2% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 1.3% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.5% 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 10/19/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##