* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 10/18/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 11 13 16 16 15 18 20 23 36 45 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 -2 -3 1 0 0 -1 -4 -2 1 4 SHEAR DIR 222 222 236 251 255 267 260 238 237 225 233 227 242 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 142 141 140 137 136 132 133 135 135 134 128 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 55 56 56 55 52 53 50 49 50 52 49 49 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 28 30 37 35 30 37 41 55 60 70 71 70 58 200 MB DIV 16 32 29 11 1 23 15 12 17 31 46 60 24 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -3 -6 -4 0 LAND (KM) 2277 2189 2109 2034 1960 1817 1690 1623 1615 1647 1734 1854 1992 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.6 14.8 15.3 16.1 17.1 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 134.4 135.3 136.1 136.8 137.5 138.8 139.9 140.4 140.4 139.9 138.8 137.4 135.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 1 2 5 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 13 18 25 29 22 17 17 18 20 16 7 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -16. -19. -24. -29. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 134.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 10/18/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.74 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.25 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.56 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 132.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.72 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.68 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.8% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 6.2% 2.4% 0.6% 0.2% 1.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 8.5% 4.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 10/18/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##