* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 10/17/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 15 13 14 17 17 13 19 25 25 28 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 2 3 0 -2 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 217 213 216 218 233 251 263 245 224 226 235 237 233 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 144 143 143 141 140 137 136 133 133 134 135 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 56 57 58 59 59 58 55 55 51 50 49 50 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 4 9 17 24 24 36 32 44 51 69 77 83 84 200 MB DIV -5 20 29 27 16 30 29 37 41 34 35 53 44 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 2252 2337 2416 2368 2296 2170 2034 1887 1760 1692 1685 1735 1817 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 13.9 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.3 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.4 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 130.9 131.9 132.7 133.4 134.1 135.3 136.6 137.9 139.0 139.6 139.6 139.0 138.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 7 6 6 7 6 5 2 2 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 8 9 10 15 20 21 18 18 18 16 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. -16. -18. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 130.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 10/17/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.76 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.13 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.50 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.30 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.19 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 124.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.73 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.57 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.96 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.9% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 6.3% 2.9% 1.0% 0.5% 1.8% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 7.0% 3.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 10/17/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##