* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 10/16/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 27 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 27 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 23 21 20 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 13 15 14 16 19 22 23 18 16 16 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 2 3 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 245 245 227 223 223 215 234 245 256 246 245 227 235 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 138 139 139 139 139 138 137 135 135 132 131 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 59 56 56 57 57 57 57 55 54 51 51 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -19 -13 1 6 9 25 25 22 24 31 39 47 200 MB DIV 11 28 37 44 28 25 21 20 26 29 40 46 43 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1673 1773 1857 1945 2028 2174 2308 2296 2145 2012 1890 1811 1783 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.4 15.2 14.9 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.7 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 125.0 126.2 127.3 128.3 129.2 130.8 132.3 133.8 135.3 136.6 137.8 138.5 138.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 11 11 13 14 12 13 17 20 19 18 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 766 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -7. -10. -10. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. -11. -13. -16. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.6 125.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 10/16/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.71 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.14 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.59 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.27 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.28 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 148.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.69 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.37 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 15.3 81.4 to 0.0 0.81 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.6% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 5.9% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 10/16/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##