* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 10/16/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 29 28 25 22 18 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 29 28 25 22 18 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 21 20 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 13 14 16 13 15 17 18 16 10 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 0 0 1 -1 -1 1 1 2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 235 240 239 221 218 221 224 248 247 259 242 240 241 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 138 138 138 139 139 139 137 136 135 134 132 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 59 59 56 56 57 56 57 56 55 52 51 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -18 -20 -15 0 11 28 33 29 25 36 39 48 200 MB DIV 18 9 29 33 34 9 19 12 24 11 17 34 35 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1552 1625 1702 1784 1856 2013 2135 2268 2358 2237 2128 2066 2042 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.8 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.3 15.0 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.4 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 123.6 124.6 125.6 126.5 127.4 129.1 130.4 131.8 133.2 134.4 135.5 136.1 136.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 7 6 7 6 6 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 5 7 9 10 10 12 14 12 12 15 18 20 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.7 123.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 10/16/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.70 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.11 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.76 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.24 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 151.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.69 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.45 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.1% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.9% 2.1% 0.5% 0.2% 1.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 7.1% 4.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 10/16/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##