* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 10/15/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 28 27 23 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 28 27 23 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 5 8 12 12 12 14 17 23 27 31 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 2 0 -3 -2 0 0 -1 -3 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 185 174 206 210 224 258 218 229 233 241 248 253 245 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 134 135 136 140 139 137 137 135 133 131 132 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 63 63 59 60 57 58 57 54 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -30 -31 -32 -25 -19 -4 5 12 15 22 12 30 200 MB DIV 35 28 28 25 17 13 30 22 15 4 24 4 21 700-850 TADV 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1414 1442 1476 1505 1544 1655 1772 1878 1988 2099 2241 2129 1901 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.6 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.5 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 120.8 121.6 122.3 122.9 123.4 124.7 126.1 127.6 129.2 130.9 132.8 134.9 137.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 5 5 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 5 5 6 7 11 12 11 13 13 9 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 14. 21. 26. 30. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 3. -2. -7. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.9 120.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 10/15/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 112.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.63 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 8.1% 7.2% 1.6% 0.8% 4.6% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.9% 2.5% 0.6% 0.3% 1.5% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 10/15/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##