* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 10/15/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 31 34 35 34 29 24 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 31 34 35 34 29 24 17 DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 3 4 7 11 12 15 18 27 32 36 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 0 0 -4 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 146 198 152 197 218 260 251 230 221 230 248 248 244 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.5 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 134 133 133 135 137 135 134 133 129 129 132 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 64 64 66 64 65 64 60 58 57 55 51 48 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -22 -29 -27 -32 -27 -26 -5 3 9 23 24 31 200 MB DIV 34 36 31 29 19 3 19 26 24 14 35 6 17 700-850 TADV 4 3 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1384 1400 1421 1440 1459 1537 1637 1749 1865 2007 2172 2093 1813 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.2 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 119.9 120.6 121.3 121.8 122.4 123.6 125.0 126.6 128.4 130.4 132.7 135.1 137.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 11 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 20 10 5 4 4 6 9 8 11 9 6 1 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -2. -7. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 14. 9. 4. -3. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.6 119.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 10/15/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 104.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.79 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 11.5% 10.1% 3.7% 1.8% 6.0% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 4.2% 3.4% 1.3% 0.6% 2.0% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 10/15/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##