* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 10/14/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 31 37 40 43 42 39 36 33 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 31 37 40 43 42 39 36 33 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 18 18 18 19 20 21 21 20 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 6 4 5 5 7 19 21 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 1 2 0 0 0 1 2 0 -3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 164 134 120 122 130 165 217 231 243 244 260 243 239 SST (C) 28.1 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 143 142 142 144 142 143 143 143 142 142 142 138 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 65 62 62 62 63 61 63 64 69 68 70 68 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -11 -17 -17 -23 -26 -22 -21 -5 2 18 27 34 200 MB DIV 24 27 30 33 17 26 22 45 45 40 22 46 29 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1338 1452 1536 1615 1683 1801 1920 2015 2088 2139 2173 2198 2261 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.5 13.7 14.3 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 118.9 120.7 122.1 123.3 124.2 125.6 126.6 127.5 128.2 128.8 129.5 130.5 132.0 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 13 10 8 6 5 4 3 3 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 13 8 12 14 14 13 12 12 14 15 16 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 17. 20. 23. 22. 19. 16. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.3 118.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 10/14/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 107.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.92 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 5.9% 2.9% 0.5% 0.2% 2.2% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 2.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 10/14/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##