* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 10/14/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 34 36 35 32 29 25 21 18 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 31 34 36 35 32 29 25 21 18 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 8 15 15 16 21 26 33 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 1 0 -1 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 141 185 207 222 242 229 235 250 240 234 238 250 252 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 27.9 27.0 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 145 135 129 130 132 133 132 133 131 128 127 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 66 65 62 61 62 60 60 58 60 59 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -16 -31 -37 -42 -46 -56 -56 -48 -28 -15 -13 -12 200 MB DIV 20 26 21 20 24 8 8 0 30 21 20 13 16 700-850 TADV 7 9 7 7 6 4 1 0 0 1 2 2 1 LAND (KM) 1031 1050 1105 1167 1225 1385 1562 1721 1864 2014 2132 2250 2066 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.1 16.9 16.8 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 114.6 116.1 117.5 118.9 120.3 122.8 124.9 126.9 128.7 130.4 132.0 133.6 135.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 13 11 10 10 8 8 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 31 28 23 16 6 5 8 8 6 3 7 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 10. 7. 4. 0. -4. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.7 114.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 10/14/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.74 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.27 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.61 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.23 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 141.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.70 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.58 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.6% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 13.2% 8.8% 4.2% 2.1% 5.7% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 13.4% 8.5% 1.5% 0.7% 1.9% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 10/14/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##