* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 10/13/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 29 32 33 33 29 25 22 18 16 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 29 32 33 33 29 25 22 18 16 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 7 13 19 20 23 26 34 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -1 0 0 -1 -2 0 -1 -4 -9 -5 SHEAR DIR 103 120 154 186 216 265 243 251 257 248 252 244 253 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.2 26.9 26.4 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 153 147 133 127 130 130 128 127 126 125 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 68 65 64 62 61 57 57 54 54 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -1 -8 -19 -29 -35 -39 -38 -46 -30 -31 -16 -24 200 MB DIV 3 15 26 15 24 22 -11 -3 9 16 8 1 3 700-850 TADV 2 5 6 6 8 7 4 2 4 5 5 3 5 LAND (KM) 1043 1077 1076 1105 1140 1216 1290 1408 1540 1628 1718 1815 1910 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.3 16.1 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.8 114.9 116.1 117.3 119.4 121.2 123.0 124.8 126.3 127.7 129.1 130.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 10 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 32 34 31 31 29 16 4 5 7 7 1 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 26. 28. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 4. 0. -3. -7. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 112.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 10/13/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.83 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.41 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.49 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.66 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.19 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 109.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.75 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.38 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.9% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 7.2% 5.9% 1.0% 0.4% 4.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 11.9% 8.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 10/13/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##