* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 10/13/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 34 37 36 34 29 25 23 21 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 31 34 37 36 34 29 25 23 21 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 26 25 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 6 10 13 13 14 18 21 22 28 28 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 -1 0 -2 -1 -3 0 -1 1 -6 SHEAR DIR 112 157 191 209 226 246 257 252 250 256 231 241 250 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.8 26.0 26.1 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 151 149 144 125 125 129 130 130 130 127 127 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 69 70 67 64 60 58 59 57 60 56 59 57 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -2 -2 -5 -11 -27 -26 -41 -25 -21 -5 -1 17 200 MB DIV 20 1 4 9 5 3 12 -12 7 19 27 16 25 700-850 TADV 3 5 12 15 15 12 9 5 1 1 4 4 1 LAND (KM) 831 851 829 858 935 1108 1304 1504 1703 1876 2047 2184 2142 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.5 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.6 17.9 17.8 17.5 17.5 17.3 17.3 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 110.9 112.1 113.5 114.9 116.5 119.7 122.5 124.9 127.3 129.5 131.4 133.0 134.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 16 15 12 11 11 10 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 22 24 22 14 4 2 2 1 4 5 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 17 CX,CY: -13/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 363 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 11. 9. 4. 0. -2. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 110.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 10/13/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.83 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.28 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.48 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.13 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 116.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.74 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.55 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.8% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.1% 24.1% 15.8% 8.4% 4.1% 7.0% 4.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 5.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% Consensus: 3.4% 16.7% 10.5% 2.9% 1.4% 2.4% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 10/13/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##