* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 10/12/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 37 41 44 44 41 37 36 35 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 37 41 44 44 41 37 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 30 30 29 27 24 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 11 9 8 6 4 11 13 18 20 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 0 1 -2 0 3 2 4 SHEAR DIR 71 74 87 103 122 198 240 269 255 252 254 246 244 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 27.9 26.9 27.1 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 154 153 153 145 133 135 140 137 137 136 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 70 71 72 71 70 67 63 60 61 60 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -15 -9 -2 -1 -11 -26 -28 -34 -22 -18 -5 7 200 MB DIV 38 38 25 -5 -5 24 23 17 -7 -8 13 35 21 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 1 3 7 7 10 6 4 3 3 4 LAND (KM) 860 913 948 1008 1068 1107 1222 1337 1482 1668 1839 1996 2145 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.5 14.4 15.1 15.7 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.8 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.7 109.2 110.4 111.7 112.9 115.5 118.2 120.7 122.9 125.2 127.4 129.4 131.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 13 13 13 11 11 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 27 23 19 21 32 26 42 3 8 13 16 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 19. 16. 12. 11. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 107.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 10/12/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.85 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.32 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.26 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.40 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 72.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.61 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.2% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 9.2% 3.4% 0.8% 0.3% 3.4% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.2% Consensus: 0.6% 8.3% 4.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 10/12/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##