* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 08/24/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 39 48 58 68 76 79 80 79 77 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 39 48 58 68 76 79 80 79 77 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 37 43 49 54 59 64 68 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 11 2 1 6 5 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -6 -3 -1 0 -2 2 0 -2 -3 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 15 11 7 354 348 337 342 8 34 146 146 102 85 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.5 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 158 158 155 152 148 146 144 141 138 140 135 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -52.8 -53.3 -52.7 -53.2 -52.2 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 76 75 72 70 68 61 58 58 55 51 46 42 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 13 15 18 20 22 23 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -16 -16 -12 -11 7 10 18 16 29 50 60 37 200 MB DIV 18 -1 1 18 17 25 42 57 19 8 17 33 -29 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 -1 0 1 -2 0 0 4 4 5 -2 LAND (KM) 675 729 802 828 826 879 960 1041 1095 1191 1331 1506 1657 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 10 9 8 7 6 7 8 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 19 16 19 23 24 21 17 15 14 17 13 7 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 20. 26. 29. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 18. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 23. 33. 43. 51. 54. 55. 54. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 108.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 08/24/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.89 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.27 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.15 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 70.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.76 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.7% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 29.2% 14.2% 6.3% 2.9% 13.1% 9.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 9.1% 2.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 1.0% Consensus: 1.7% 21.3% 11.2% 2.2% 1.0% 4.5% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 08/24/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##