* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 08/24/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 43 54 65 74 80 81 86 89 90 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 43 54 65 74 80 81 86 89 90 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 32 35 44 52 61 68 72 76 80 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 8 9 9 9 9 11 2 6 1 1 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -7 -7 -6 -1 0 0 1 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 19 353 360 345 339 337 320 333 295 324 185 333 345 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.3 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 160 159 158 158 153 149 147 144 142 137 136 134 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -52.8 -53.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 80 78 79 76 73 68 62 59 58 55 53 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 11 13 16 19 21 24 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -24 -21 -18 -17 -17 -1 1 -1 -12 -7 7 11 200 MB DIV 65 51 19 -2 -2 11 24 57 39 31 18 20 42 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -3 -1 0 0 2 -1 1 0 2 3 2 LAND (KM) 508 562 629 714 781 820 875 943 1006 1100 1245 1400 1504 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 16 15 13 12 8 6 6 7 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 42 33 19 20 24 21 20 17 11 12 12 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 22 CX,CY: -20/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 451 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 24.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 18. 22. 25. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 29. 40. 49. 55. 57. 61. 64. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 106.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 08/24/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.90 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.36 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.80 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.25 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 36.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.85 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.66 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 32.6% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.2% 44.0% 39.2% 24.1% 16.1% 37.2% 45.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 19.6% 11.0% 3.3% 1.1% 10.8% 9.7% Consensus: 4.2% 32.0% 23.9% 9.1% 5.7% 16.0% 18.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 08/24/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##