* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 08/23/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 45 56 62 66 68 70 72 74 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 45 56 62 66 68 70 72 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 34 39 45 50 52 53 54 56 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 9 7 5 6 8 9 10 10 7 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 0 1 0 -4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 36 10 18 15 4 336 320 322 319 318 298 353 14 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 162 162 163 162 158 154 147 144 144 144 152 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 74 75 78 78 77 77 73 68 58 56 53 59 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 9 8 9 10 12 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -10 -16 -26 -28 -25 -9 -8 -16 -24 -35 -29 -5 200 MB DIV 30 45 55 49 40 16 17 18 20 29 23 40 53 700-850 TADV 11 10 9 9 8 1 3 1 0 0 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 565 547 531 525 530 541 631 670 733 913 1130 1421 1696 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.1 11.7 12.5 13.3 14.9 16.3 17.3 17.9 17.9 17.5 16.5 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 97.2 98.6 100.2 101.9 103.7 107.1 110.0 112.4 114.6 117.1 119.9 122.7 125.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 18 19 19 18 14 11 11 12 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 11 15 27 29 33 40 20 18 14 7 17 25 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 3. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 31. 37. 41. 43. 45. 47. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 97.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 08/23/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.92 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 24.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 08/23/16 00 UTC ##