* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 07/21/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 47 53 59 58 56 52 49 45 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 47 53 59 58 56 52 49 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 37 38 38 37 35 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 13 15 12 12 7 6 4 7 8 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -3 -1 -1 -5 -2 -3 -2 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 30 31 30 47 50 53 85 66 82 88 87 86 78 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.4 29.0 28.0 26.9 25.8 24.3 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 157 156 155 154 158 154 143 131 120 104 94 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 7 5 5 3 3 1 700-500 MB RH 80 79 77 77 77 74 75 70 71 67 67 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 6 7 8 7 7 6 5 4 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -8 -3 -8 -15 5 12 2 -8 -16 -10 2 0 200 MB DIV 66 45 28 40 15 6 10 12 -3 -7 -7 7 -8 700-850 TADV 4 4 3 2 1 -1 0 -4 -5 -3 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 481 455 404 381 373 375 415 401 333 310 312 262 319 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 8 9 8 6 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 30 33 28 27 20 11 13 8 3 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 29. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 22. 28. 34. 33. 31. 27. 24. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 102.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 07/21/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.87 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.38 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.76 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.35 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.34 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 25.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.87 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.68 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.0% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.0% 30.1% 18.4% 10.0% 5.4% 17.0% 23.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 18.8% 6.0% 1.3% 0.4% 6.9% 12.7% Consensus: 2.8% 25.3% 14.0% 3.8% 1.9% 8.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 07/21/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##