* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 07/21/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 46 53 58 59 57 54 53 52 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 46 53 58 59 57 54 53 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 38 41 42 43 44 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 15 15 18 15 14 7 7 5 6 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 -2 -4 -1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 34 45 48 46 55 56 63 62 64 76 86 106 84 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.1 28.3 27.3 26.6 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 156 153 152 154 157 155 146 136 129 117 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 1 700-500 MB RH 79 80 79 78 76 75 74 73 68 68 63 61 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 7 6 5 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 5 5 4 -3 -5 1 9 -2 -11 -24 -13 4 200 MB DIV 92 79 63 47 37 20 29 6 8 -5 -30 -14 -29 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 2 0 1 0 -1 -5 -3 -4 2 -3 LAND (KM) 599 580 557 534 527 546 544 595 583 572 622 634 662 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 11 10 9 8 8 9 9 7 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 21 23 28 37 41 23 12 15 16 9 13 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 17 CX,CY: -13/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 21. 28. 33. 34. 32. 29. 28. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 102.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 07/21/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.87 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.40 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.54 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.22 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.51 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 24.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.87 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.68 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.7% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 10.6% 5.4% 2.4% 1.2% 4.4% 6.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 14.9% 5.0% 1.1% 0.2% 2.3% 11.5% Consensus: 0.7% 15.7% 8.3% 1.2% 0.5% 2.2% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 07/21/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##