* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982019 10/14/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 42 45 48 51 53 58 60 60 63 62 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 42 45 48 43 32 34 36 36 39 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 38 39 35 29 31 33 34 37 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 12 12 13 12 12 12 4 6 11 13 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 1 5 7 7 3 2 7 5 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 73 92 66 66 82 74 79 126 269 298 310 317 321 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.6 29.2 28.8 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 152 154 156 162 158 154 162 163 163 159 159 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 5 5 8 6 6 4 7 6 8 700-500 MB RH 84 86 86 86 85 84 81 87 81 71 59 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 15 14 11 7 4 5 5 5 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 93 89 80 82 84 85 71 68 42 22 7 -12 -13 200 MB DIV 104 141 148 136 127 102 138 112 90 30 -19 3 6 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -6 -4 -1 -1 -5 -3 -10 0 5 14 5 LAND (KM) 189 197 198 181 148 119 -35 -69 21 184 358 479 334 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.9 12.3 12.9 14.4 16.4 18.8 21.2 23.1 24.2 25.0 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 89.0 89.9 90.6 91.3 92.1 93.7 95.2 96.6 97.1 96.0 94.1 92.3 90.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 9 10 12 13 13 12 10 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 11 12 12 17 20 22 38 63 78 59 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 27. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -4. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 21. 23. 28. 30. 30. 33. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.4 89.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982019 INVEST 10/14/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.32 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 131.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.87 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 12.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 24.8% 21.9% 16.6% 0.0% 20.9% 23.2% 44.5% Logistic: 2.3% 21.6% 8.5% 5.3% 0.9% 22.8% 49.1% 25.4% Bayesian: 0.7% 8.3% 4.5% 0.7% 0.1% 1.3% 1.0% 11.7% Consensus: 4.2% 18.2% 11.7% 7.5% 0.3% 15.0% 24.4% 27.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982019 INVEST 10/14/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##