* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982019 09/01/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 35 43 52 60 67 72 72 72 68 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 35 43 52 60 67 72 72 72 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 38 41 42 42 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 4 8 7 6 4 4 5 6 4 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 5 -1 -3 -2 -5 -3 -1 0 -1 1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 188 213 230 272 285 313 329 300 292 292 173 166 176 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 26.7 25.5 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 159 158 158 155 145 144 141 138 130 119 108 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 71 68 68 68 69 66 65 61 57 56 55 51 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 14 15 17 19 21 24 26 26 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -8 -4 -1 0 12 1 17 18 28 33 32 39 200 MB DIV 108 73 39 22 37 36 29 32 35 23 32 -5 8 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 2 0 -5 -4 -7 0 -4 2 2 0 LAND (KM) 773 748 725 729 755 811 801 844 886 922 971 1069 1162 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 12 12 11 9 9 7 5 7 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 34 31 26 21 23 23 12 11 13 10 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 19. 19. 18. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 10. 18. 27. 35. 42. 47. 47. 47. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 106.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982019 INVEST 09/01/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.76 6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.6% 23.5% 0.0% 0.0% 21.6% 21.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 19.4% 11.2% 4.9% 0.9% 9.2% 14.7% 17.7% Bayesian: 1.0% 11.5% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 1.9% 18.5% 12.6% 1.9% 0.3% 10.6% 12.0% 6.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982019 INVEST 09/01/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##