* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982019 07/19/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 22 22 22 22 23 24 22 22 23 25 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 22 22 22 22 23 24 22 22 23 25 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 24 20 17 21 15 4 15 14 12 9 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 5 8 6 0 4 -2 0 -1 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 331 345 358 356 353 359 302 218 232 236 263 296 320 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.5 26.6 26.3 25.7 25.5 25.5 25.6 26.1 26.4 26.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 140 130 127 119 115 113 117 123 127 129 136 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 64 61 63 62 62 58 54 48 46 40 40 41 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 7 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -41 -44 -47 -63 -68 -70 -61 -29 -3 19 21 28 200 MB DIV 103 121 129 87 41 -8 -18 -54 -55 -61 -44 -48 -26 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -11 -13 -16 -8 -1 -2 0 2 3 1 0 LAND (KM) 2450 2482 2463 2378 2305 2233 2173 2158 2233 2139 1999 1842 1689 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.1 13.0 14.0 15.0 17.0 17.9 18.0 17.5 17.0 16.3 15.6 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 131.0 131.9 132.6 133.2 133.6 133.8 133.3 133.2 133.7 134.7 136.2 137.9 139.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 7 3 1 5 6 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 36 21 8 1 1 0 0 0 0 3 12 28 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. 2. 3. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.7 131.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982019 INVEST 07/19/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982019 INVEST 07/19/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##