* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982018 10/14/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 44 49 50 48 41 35 24 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 32 29 28 32 30 26 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 37 33 30 28 31 31 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 11 11 10 10 11 13 19 35 55 66 75 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 1 -2 -5 -1 0 -3 -2 -14 -9 SHEAR DIR 71 76 93 117 121 160 176 221 216 224 222 229 230 SST (C) 30.0 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.0 30.4 31.2 31.3 31.2 31.0 30.7 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 167 167 166 166 163 167 170 171 171 173 175 168 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -54.7 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 10 11 9 9 8 6 4 4 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 71 67 65 63 57 52 49 48 49 53 58 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 8 7 7 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 47 47 39 55 70 79 72 57 60 55 34 17 3 200 MB DIV 16 29 61 75 75 46 55 49 44 34 56 55 62 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 3 9 16 34 27 LAND (KM) 125 122 78 39 22 -15 -54 -20 80 68 -99 -383 -786 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.9 19.6 20.4 21.4 23.1 25.5 28.7 32.2 LONG(DEG W) 102.0 102.4 102.7 103.0 103.2 103.8 104.4 105.3 106.3 107.2 107.3 106.3 103.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 8 10 14 19 22 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 22 20 20 16 41 36 46 29 21 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -7. -17. -26. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 19. 20. 18. 11. 5. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.6 102.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982018 INVEST 10/14/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.43 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.19 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.77 -2.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.76 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 22.8% 15.3% 13.5% 0.0% 17.6% 20.5% 35.1% Logistic: 1.7% 10.7% 6.5% 2.8% 1.1% 7.3% 2.4% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.9% Consensus: 2.9% 11.9% 7.4% 5.4% 0.4% 8.3% 7.7% 12.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 33.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982018 INVEST 10/14/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX