* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972019 07/21/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 44 46 48 48 43 38 32 25 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 41 44 46 48 48 43 38 32 25 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 35 36 36 35 32 29 25 21 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 21 20 18 15 13 8 6 7 8 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -4 -2 0 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 71 77 74 68 58 48 17 13 271 281 211 177 161 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.5 27.4 26.6 25.1 24.4 24.4 23.6 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 148 145 138 137 128 112 105 106 98 85 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 66 67 66 65 67 69 68 66 62 60 49 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 14 13 14 14 15 15 13 12 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 81 86 86 75 54 53 37 37 30 28 25 14 0 200 MB DIV 90 89 84 76 51 42 36 47 6 -2 -9 -8 -6 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -2 -4 -7 -6 -3 1 0 1 4 1 LAND (KM) 1344 1302 1261 1224 1190 1121 1037 983 950 963 972 1022 1097 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 15 13 10 6 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 2. 0. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 18. 18. 13. 8. 2. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.4 116.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 07/21/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.59 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.9% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% Logistic: 0.4% 2.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 7.1% 5.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 3.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 10.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 07/21/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##