* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 10/06/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 29 30 31 33 35 36 36 32 32 35 31 V (KT) LAND 25 28 26 26 26 30 31 32 33 29 29 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 25 26 26 29 28 27 25 23 21 24 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 15 18 17 23 22 33 28 36 36 35 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -1 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 -3 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 356 10 355 351 341 340 318 304 271 285 256 214 202 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.3 28.3 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 159 160 155 154 157 160 151 154 151 149 151 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.7 -53.0 -53.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -51.4 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 6 6 5 7 7 9 7 7 4 6 700-500 MB RH 79 79 77 74 76 77 78 73 64 61 63 65 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 87 87 76 77 81 66 60 75 30 21 49 92 200 MB DIV 75 75 79 107 105 67 29 24 37 23 46 51 64 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 1 4 2 15 31 26 25 41 5 -6 LAND (KM) 97 42 -35 -144 -183 36 302 153 136 218 0 -242 -482 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.0 12.5 13.2 13.9 15.6 17.9 20.7 24.3 27.6 30.4 32.7 35.0 LONG(DEG W) 87.6 87.3 86.8 86.1 85.2 83.6 82.4 81.8 82.6 85.0 87.8 89.0 87.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 8 10 12 12 13 16 19 20 16 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 31 24 6 30 68 68 48 29 27 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 9. 16. 24. 30. 34. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -4. -11. -20. -28. -31. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 7. 7. 10. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.6 87.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 10/06/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.32 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.15 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.64 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -4.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.7% 22.1% 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 18.8% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 29.3% 11.8% 7.9% 5.0% 9.8% 25.3% 21.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 1.3% Consensus: 2.0% 18.9% 11.4% 2.6% 1.7% 9.5% 14.8% 7.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 10/06/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX