* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962019 10/14/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 23 22 22 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 23 20 23 23 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 21 21 21 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 19 20 23 38 53 51 42 48 47 51 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 0 5 4 3 -2 2 -6 -1 10 SHEAR DIR 185 189 208 214 217 250 250 253 280 314 299 296 297 SST (C) 26.5 26.5 26.1 27.0 30.0 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 125 135 166 146 148 145 144 145 160 164 166 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -53.8 -53.2 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 7 5 8 1 4 0 4 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 52 48 42 39 39 39 37 37 35 31 30 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 8 6 6 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 7 16 11 21 28 14 -23 -23 -45 -29 14 19 200 MB DIV 41 38 18 -5 -13 0 -2 -27 -82 -39 -24 2 -3 700-850 TADV 1 4 2 -2 -12 -3 -8 8 14 16 55 80 184 LAND (KM) 298 216 109 -20 70 -141 -427 -534 -540 -605 -574 -507 -634 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.3 23.3 24.4 25.4 27.3 28.4 28.3 28.4 29.0 30.3 32.4 35.5 LONG(DEG W) 112.4 112.1 111.7 111.1 110.3 108.2 105.5 104.1 104.1 103.8 102.4 99.1 93.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 13 14 10 2 1 5 13 23 30 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 2 25 6 7 3 3 3 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 1. -9. -23. -38. -50. -56. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -13. -24. -38. -47. -51. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.4 112.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962019 INVEST 10/14/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.04 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.87 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.9% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962019 INVEST 10/14/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##