* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962019 10/13/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 29 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 29 26 24 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 27 26 22 22 22 25 26 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 16 18 23 24 41 55 58 60 52 57 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -4 -1 1 1 1 3 0 -2 -2 -8 SHEAR DIR 131 155 178 181 195 236 248 256 259 271 293 323 328 SST (C) 27.3 26.9 27.0 26.7 26.3 24.8 29.4 28.4 28.0 28.3 28.3 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 133 131 127 112 161 149 144 145 146 159 160 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -54.7 -55.0 -54.8 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 5 4 6 0 3 0 2 700-500 MB RH 72 67 64 59 55 47 44 41 38 38 37 34 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 11 9 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 24 16 6 8 6 23 -2 -11 -48 -57 -55 -59 200 MB DIV 66 76 81 56 39 32 -3 -15 -39 -52 -68 -67 -39 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -1 0 0 3 -1 -1 -3 7 17 32 110 LAND (KM) 661 591 519 441 332 97 39 -189 -414 -539 -649 -591 -479 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.4 20.2 21.1 22.1 24.2 26.6 28.3 29.1 29.3 29.9 30.6 31.6 LONG(DEG W) 114.4 114.3 114.1 113.9 113.7 113.0 111.2 108.7 106.3 104.8 103.9 102.4 99.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 13 14 13 9 5 6 10 14 HEAT CONTENT 5 2 3 2 4 0 21 13 6 7 6 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 25. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -7. -21. -37. -50. -57. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -14. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -13. -24. -39. -50. -57. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.6 114.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962019 INVEST 10/13/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 2.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.10 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.51 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 14.4% 9.2% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.8% 3.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962019 INVEST 10/13/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##