* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962019 10/12/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 33 31 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 33 31 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 31 27 22 19 24 26 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 19 21 20 31 39 55 63 64 67 48 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -5 -7 -6 1 4 -1 -4 -2 -8 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 124 142 159 180 200 209 235 243 254 253 253 255 310 SST (C) 27.8 27.4 26.9 26.9 26.6 25.4 24.0 29.0 28.2 28.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 132 132 130 118 104 157 148 147 156 158 160 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -54.5 -54.8 -55.1 -56.0 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 5 3 5 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 71 70 71 69 65 56 48 47 45 42 43 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 15 14 12 9 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 19 6 19 17 5 20 25 -4 -21 5 -40 -56 -71 200 MB DIV 68 67 74 79 61 26 20 -2 5 -2 -46 -21 -37 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -5 -3 -5 -5 1 -3 -6 -6 4 19 36 LAND (KM) 784 692 615 543 469 248 100 0 -335 -589 -580 -526 -489 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.4 19.3 20.1 21.0 23.2 25.5 27.9 29.1 29.7 30.1 31.0 32.2 LONG(DEG W) 114.7 114.6 114.5 114.3 114.3 114.0 113.1 110.6 107.4 104.5 102.6 101.2 99.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 11 14 16 14 11 7 8 13 HEAT CONTENT 10 6 2 2 1 0 0 17 8 6 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -8. -23. -39. -55. -61. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -9. -20. -34. -48. -53. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.4 114.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962019 INVEST 10/12/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.15 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 14.3% 10.4% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.9% 3.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962019 INVEST 10/12/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##