* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962019 10/12/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 35 37 34 28 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 35 37 34 28 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 26 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 14 17 18 14 19 21 28 32 33 26 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -2 -5 -5 -2 0 3 3 9 8 10 3 SHEAR DIR 86 80 103 119 143 191 201 230 248 269 284 287 275 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.1 26.2 25.1 24.5 23.9 24.3 28.8 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 142 139 139 134 125 114 107 100 104 151 162 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 3 2 700-500 MB RH 75 74 72 74 72 65 59 47 41 39 37 35 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 16 18 18 18 16 13 11 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 43 26 25 31 27 10 8 3 11 20 17 -13 2 200 MB DIV 110 89 90 99 84 45 41 14 -23 -2 -30 -49 -54 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -5 -5 -3 -1 3 1 3 0 -1 -11 -2 LAND (KM) 1075 1049 988 922 844 710 555 406 255 156 26 8 47 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.6 19.1 20.7 22.4 24.1 25.4 26.2 26.5 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.2 116.2 116.1 115.8 115.5 115.4 115.3 114.7 114.1 112.8 111.5 110.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 8 7 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 16 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -5. -12. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 2. -2. -6. -7. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 9. 3. -7. -15. -20. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 115.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962019 INVEST 10/12/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.30 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.67 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.3% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 13.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 1.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 7.3% 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 4.9% 5.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962019 INVEST 10/12/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##