* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962019 10/12/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 36 40 45 46 44 37 25 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 36 40 45 46 44 37 27 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 34 32 29 24 20 18 24 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 8 12 16 13 18 26 35 52 51 51 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -2 -4 -4 0 2 4 -1 1 5 0 SHEAR DIR 91 80 75 102 122 195 190 221 240 251 260 275 287 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.0 26.1 24.8 24.1 28.0 28.7 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 144 141 140 133 124 111 105 145 151 147 146 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 4 1 4 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 72 74 70 62 52 44 41 40 38 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 15 17 18 18 17 14 12 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 50 44 26 24 29 13 7 10 20 4 -23 -13 12 200 MB DIV 97 113 97 81 98 73 23 47 15 -10 -7 -44 -48 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -2 -4 -6 -3 -3 2 -4 0 -3 4 4 LAND (KM) 1074 1050 1003 926 845 693 516 339 161 -13 -30 -202 -384 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.2 15.8 16.6 17.4 19.1 21.0 23.0 25.3 27.1 28.2 28.9 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 115.4 115.8 115.9 115.8 115.6 115.3 115.2 115.0 113.9 112.2 110.4 108.8 107.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 11 9 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 17 13 10 8 8 4 0 0 0 9 15 14 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -15. -26. -33. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 20. 21. 19. 12. 0. -12. -21. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.7 115.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962019 INVEST 10/12/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.48 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.69 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.7% 22.3% 0.0% 0.0% 19.3% 18.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 6.4% 2.9% 1.3% 0.6% 2.8% 8.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 10.7% 8.4% 0.4% 0.2% 7.4% 8.8% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962019 INVEST 10/12/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##